In reality, the carcasses aren't quite so rotting, and that hill is shrinking rapidly. This topic has been discussed to death across the interwebs, so I will attempt to gloss over as much rhetoric as possible and show you why the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel is glowing brighter by the day.
Who's To Blame?
Why is IE 6 still popular? Ok, "popular" is pushing it and likely to make some people's head explode, so let's rephrase that as "still in such widespread use".
Designers? Some claim that if designers stop supporting IE6 then users will be forced to upgrade. This simply isn't true. There are too few websites powerful enough with sufficiently unique content to force users to upgrade. People will not upgrade, they will simply move to one of the 10 other websites that do the exact same thing as yours (but which do support IE6). The decision is a business decision, and as such, many designers have little power to influence the outcome. If this was not the case, IE6 would have been laid to rest years ago.
Businesses? There are web apps integral to company processes that require IE 6. (For example, the company I work for was unable to upgrade to IE7 until 4th quarter last year. It took that long for our team to find a window to upgrade our website content management system to a version that supported IE7.) Until those applications are updated, some companies simply do not have a choice. If your visitors tend to browse while at work (which *ahem* none of us should be doing...), dropping IE6 support could be a significant blow.
Users? This is where I believe the true problem lies. Most people who use computers simply don't know enough about them to know other options exist. Or they simply don't care. IE6 is built in to their operating system, so that is what they use. "Good enough" is a mantra most people ohm to. I'm sure there are many people with Windows Update turned off and don't even realize an upgrade is available. Those botnet agents have to be on someone's PC after all.
Licensing? Due to Windows Genuine Advantage, IE6 is the last version of Internet Explorer that people with pirated copies of IE6 can use. They would have to figure out how to bypass the security check to upgrade to IE7 or IE8. Many people likely wouldn't bother. Regretably, there are a lot of pirated copies of XP out there. Honestly, I doubt this aspect of the problem has much of an overall effect.
The End Is Nigh
IE6 is on its deathbed, and the spectre of death clutches at its web-designer-spit-covered remains. Many will claim credit for it (just Google "IE6 sucks"), but the truth is, it will have died a peaceful death due to natural causes.
Word Of Mouth Eventually the most recluse shut-in will have a friend or family member who notifies them that there are other alternatives available. Or they will stumble on alternatives accidentally. Many people likely don't care to exercise those options (see the "Good Enough" mantra above), but those who do will slowly add to the conversion rate.
Google I currently use Google Chrome as my main browser. I am in the minority, but that minority is growing. Chrome has already overtaken Opera's market share and is gaining on Safari. Thus far Google hasn't marketed their browser and you have to dig around just to find a link to download it, but if they decide to really push it, and if it is the default browser on the upcoming Google OS as I expect it to be, its share will grow substantially.
Apple iPhone popularity continues to push Safari numbers higher. It has also somewhat recently (as of version 3) been made available for Windows too, but that hasn't seemed to have made much of an impact thus far.
One IE per OS Without jumping through some serious rings of fire, you can only have one version of Internet Explorer on any Windows OS. As people upgrade their computers, IE 6 will no longer be available to them.
Lack Of Support Yes, this is a somewhat hypocritical counterpoint to my previous position indicating designers do not have much influence. Some absolutely huge sites are slowly dropping IE6 support and notifying those users that other browsers are available. This will help educate users that other alternatives are available.
But, the real champion for the death of IE6 is a somewhat unlikely candidate: Microsoft itself.
This will be the single greatest influencing factor in IE6's decline. Many companies (perhaps most) skipped migrating to Windows Vista. With the release of Windows 7 imminent, many of those same companies will be upgrading this time around. Few companies want to fall more than one release behind the upgrade curve, as the expense to migrate becomes larger and larger with each release. Windows 7 will have IE8 as it's default browser. Expect to see IE 6 usage drop like a stone over the next six months, followed closely by IE7, and for IE8 to respond with more or less equal gains.
Windows 7 Professional will have XP mode and some companies will be slow migrating their IE6-dependant apps, but you can bet their employees and managers alike will complain about having to use IE6 in the virtual machine instead of the fancier IE8. Those complaints, aided by the likely already in development upgrades to said apps in preparations for the Windows 7 migration, will ensure that those older apps are replaced within a reasonable timeframe. This will remove any remaining excuses for corporations to keep IE6 among their supported applications.
The Decline Has Begun
IE6 usage has been declining somewhat steadily for years. This decline will continue. Here are some significant signposts of that decline.
YouTube YouTube posts a warning message to visitors using IE6, indicating that their browser is out of date. Other tech-savvy sites will be sure to follow their example.
W3C The godfathers of the internet *cough* track browser stats which illustrate that from Jan '09 to September '09, IE 6 visitors have dropped by 6.4%. Many people extrapolate W3C's site stats and apply them to the internet as a whole, but that is a gross mistake. Not only are all such statistics regionally spun, W3Cs stats appear to revolve mostly around visits to their own website. (They do monitor other sites, but to what extent I do not know.) At the very least, we can assume that there are less web designers visiting their site with IE6, which indicates support for IE6 on a whole is experiencing a downward trend.
Net Applications In my opinion, Net Applications has the best browser stats available on the internet. They amalgamate data from a huge amount of varied sources. I won't reproduce their data here, but here is a comparison of browser support from Sept '08 to Sept '09:
|IE (all versions)||down 9.4%|
The only major browser to lose market share - and a substantial chunk at that - was Internet Explorer.
The end is coming folks. I'm not sure any of us have the power to hurry it along, but be patient. The end is coming. I predict IE 6 will have 5% market share or less by this time next year. That's a number that is safe enough for most conservative designers - and businesses - to drop support.
But Until Then...
Supporting IE6 can be made easier. I have gathered many tips for working with IE6 over the last little while. I apologize but I am unable to accredit most of the original sources as I do not know who they are, but their efforts are appreciated.
Design with standards first, then compensate for IE6 afterwards. This will save you time in the long run.
Use a CSS reset style to bring all browsers closer to a baseline default.
Use conditional comments to add an IE6-only CSS after other CSS links have been applied. This is the most efficient way of supporting the dinosaur.